The photovoltaic industry’s ongoing polarization has reached a critical point, with JinkoSolar emerging as the most surprising underperformer in Q1 2025. While competitors like LONGi Green Energy and Tongwei showed signs of recovery with narrowing losses, JinkoSolar’s financials took an alarming turn for the worse.
Quarterly Performance Raises Red Flags
JinkoSolar reported Q1 revenue of 13.84 billion yuan (down 40.03% YoY) and net losses of 1.39 billion yuan (down 218.2% YoY). This contrasts sharply with LONGi’s relative improvement, whose Q1 losses decreased by 38.89% despite similar revenue challenges.
The company’s reliance on government subsidies has become increasingly apparent. A recent 98 million yuan subsidy announcement follows years of substantial government support – 1.209 billion yuan in 2022, 1.451 billion yuan in 2023, and a staggering 2.477 billion yuan in 2024. These figures dwarf JinkoSolar’s 2024 net profit of just 99 million yuan.
Market Valuation and Leadership Impact
Investors have responded harshly to these developments. Since its 2022 peak, JinkoSolar’s stock has plummeted over 70%, erasing 138 billion yuan in market capitalization. Year-to-date declines exceed 27%, with 19 billion yuan in value wiped out.
The fallout has significantly impacted founder Li Xiande’s personal wealth. From topping Jiangxi province’s rich list with 35.3 billion yuan in 2023, his net worth has collapsed to 11.5 billion yuan in the 2025 Hurun Global Rich List – a drop exceeding 23.5 billion yuan.
The Rise and Challenges of a TOPCon Pioneer
JinkoSolar’s previous success stemmed from its early bet on TOPCon technology. By 2023, the company had shipped over 48GW of N-type modules, reclaiming its position as the global module shipment leader and posting 7.44 billion yuan in net profit (up 153.2% YoY).
However, 2024 brought industry-wide challenges. While JinkoSolar’s 22.08% revenue decline to 92.47 billion yuan and 98.67% profit drop appeared resilient compared to peers’ combined 33.28-37.98 billion yuan losses, the Q1 2025 collapse suggests deeper issues.
Structural Industry Challenges
JinkoSolar attributes its struggles to low photovoltaic prices and international trade policy fluctuations. However, analysts identify more fundamental concerns:
1. TOPCon Oversupply: Approximately 700GW of new TOPCon capacity has flooded the market, far exceeding global demand. JinkoSolar’s scale advantage has become a liability, forcing the company to accept low-margin contracts. Module gross margins halved from 14.43% to 7.79% in 2024 despite shipping 92.87GW (25% more than its closest competitor).
2. Technological Disruption: Back-contact (BC) solar cells are emerging as superior to TOPCon in efficiency and performance. While currently priced 0.79-0.83 yuan versus TOPCon’s 0.63-0.75 yuan, BC technology’s advantages in conversion efficiency and temperature coefficients position it for future dominance.
Strategic Crossroads and Financial Pressures
JinkoSolar faces critical decisions about its technological roadmap. The company plans to boost TOPCon efficiency to 27% while developing perovskite tandem cells. However, perovskite stability issues may require three+ years to resolve – potentially leaving JinkoSolar behind BC adopters.
Compounding these challenges, JinkoSolar’s aggressive expansion has created significant debt burdens:
- 72.72% debt-to-asset ratio (Q1 2025)
- 86.56 billion yuan total liabilities
- 47.53 billion yuan current liabilities (including 28.04 billion yuan in payables)
Since its 2022 IPO, the company has raised 22.4 billion yuan through equity financing and 185.671 billion yuan in bank loans – reflecting the capital intensity of its growth strategy.
Industry Outlook
Analysts suggest JinkoSolar’s difficulties may intensify before improving. The company only began reporting losses in Q4 2024 (1.116 billion yuan), with Q1 2025’s deeper 1.39 billion yuan deficit indicating worsening conditions. Historical patterns suggest photovoltaic companies typically face extended periods of significant losses before recovery.
With TOPCon oversupply persisting, BC technology advancing, and balance sheet pressures mounting, JinkoSolar’s current challenges may represent just the beginning of a prolonged industry adjustment period.
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