The Seventh National Population Census revealed a striking demographic shift – Northeast China lost 11.01 million residents over the past decade. At the recent 2023 Changbai Mountain Summit Forum, Fu Peng, Chief Economist of Northeast Securities, offered a contrarian perspective to Phoenix Finance on addressing the region’s population outflow.
Rethinking the Population Paradigm
“We don’t necessarily need population to flow back,” Fu asserted. “The real question is how to boost GDP per capita. When that rises, people will naturally return.”
Fu challenged conventional wisdom about Northeast China’s development model, suggesting the region should leverage its comparative advantages rather than chase industrial revival strategies dependent on large workforces.
Seasonal Tourism as Economic Engine
The economist highlighted untapped potential in the region’s natural resources: “Maybe the industrial Northeast built on population density is gone, but we can create a ‘backyard garden’ Northeast based on pristine landscapes.”
He cited compelling examples from 2014-2015 when youth in Changbai Mountain resort towns could earn 300,000 yuan annually – enough to purchase local housing outright. “Work one year in the resort, buy a home in town” became a reality for seasonal tourism workers.
Learning from Global Examples
Drawing parallels to Japan’s Hokkaido, Fu noted: “It’s not a perpetual population magnet either, but by focusing on local characteristics, they’ve built sustainable economies. Population loss shouldn’t be viewed as apocalyptic.”
Policy Recommendations
Fu’s prescription for Northeast China includes:
- Concentrating on summer/winter high-end cultural tourism
- Banning resource-intensive projects like golf courses in ecologically sensitive areas
- Maximizing the “green mountains as gold mines” development philosophy
“Economic vitality will create natural feedback,” Fu concluded. “Improve living standards through smarter resource utilization, and migration patterns will adjust accordingly.”
Data Context
The Northeast’s demographic challenge remains substantial:
- Total population decline: 11.01 million (2010-2020)
Key outflow provinces: Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjian
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