Global corn prices continue their downward trend as the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts record-high production for the 2025/2026 season, while Brazil’s second-season corn harvest approaches, intensifying supply pressure on international markets. Despite the ongoing northern hemisphere planting season and weather uncertainties, alongside improving Sino-U.S. trade relations, the potential for further declines in corn prices remains limited.
Global Production Rises, Pressuring Prices
The USDA’s May supply and demand report projects global corn production in 2025/2026 to reach 1.265 billion tons, a 3.6% increase year-on-year. The U.S. market exemplifies the “higher volume, lower price” trend, with planting acreage expected to expand 5.2% to 95.3 million acres and yields rising 0.9%, leading to a historic production record of 15.82 billion bushels (over 400 million tons).
Meanwhile, Brazil’s National Commodity Supply Corporation’s latest forecast sees total corn output for 2024/2025 reaching 126.9 million tons—up 2.14 million tons from last month and a 9.9% increase year-on-year. The second-season crop alone is projected at 99.8 million tons, rising 2% from the prior month and up 10.8% year-on-year. Argentina’s Buenos Aires Exchange reported slower corn harvesting progress, with only 37% complete as of last week, though it maintained a production forecast of 49 million tons, consistent with USDA estimates. Overall, these increases sustain downward pressure on international corn prices.
Domestic Import Declines and Stable Prices
China’s corn imports have sharply declined year-on-year. April imports totaled just 180,000 tons—down approximately 85%—with Brazil supplying 83% of that volume, followed by Russia. From January to April, imports totaled 440,000 tons, a 95% year-on-year drop. Brazil remained the dominant source, accounting for 56.5%, with Russia, Ukraine, and Myanmar making up smaller shares.
Domestic corn prices have remained relatively stable, partly buoyed by strong wheat prices. The narrowing price gap between wheat and corn, driven by the introduction of new wheat stocks and the anticipated release of imported corn and aged rice, has increased wheat’s substitution in animal feed, slightly adjusting corn prices.
Despite this, China’s grain imports have decreased by 30 million tons year-on-year since 2024/2025, reflecting ongoing supply tightness. Market watchers expect that once the impact of new wheat stocks is absorbed in the second half of the year, corn’s supply constraints will re-emerge, supporting a steady rise in prices.
Wheat Substitution and Export Market Dynamics
Domestically, new wheat production prospects appear positive. Institutional surveys indicate limited damage from drought and late spring cold in Henan, with adequate soil moisture and good crop conditions. Wheat supplies are sufficient, old crop inventories remain high, flour mills operate steadily, and feed manufacturers have increased wheat use in feed formulas. Attention will focus on the wheat-corn price spread moving forward.
On the global stage, export competition between the U.S. and Brazil is intensifying. Brazil, the world’s second-largest corn exporter, is steadily increasing its market share, challenging the U.S.’s traditional dominance and reshaping the global corn trade landscape. Furthermore, the early stage of the northern hemisphere planting season and easing Sino-U.S. trade tensions may curb further corn price declines.
In summary, while global production surges are pressuring prices downward, domestic supply tightness and evolving feed substitution dynamics, alongside shifting international export competition, are expected to stabilize corn prices and set the stage for potential upward trends later this year.
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