China is poised to dramatically scale up its cultivation of genetically modified (GM) corn this year, planting four to five times more than in 2024, as the country intensifies efforts to bolster food security and reduce reliance on imports, analysts and industry insiders report.
According to CITICS Research and three senior figures in the seed industry, GM corn acreage is expected to reach 40 to 50 million mu (approximately 3.3 million hectares) in 2025, up from around 10 million mu last year. The sources requested anonymity due to the political sensitivity surrounding genetically modified agriculture in China.
The move signals a significant shift in policy after years of government hesitation, driven by tight regulatory control, public resistance, and uneven results from early trials. Despite these hurdles, Beijing has accelerated approvals of GM seed varieties over the past two years, presenting biotechnology as a strategic tool to enhance domestic food production.
While still representing just 7% of China’s total corn farmland—far below the over 90% GM adoption rates in countries like the U.S. and Brazil—the expansion marks a notable pivot for the world’s largest importer of corn and soybeans.
Though not directly linked to ongoing trade tensions with the U.S., the adoption of GM corn could help China lessen its dependency on foreign supplies, including those from the United States, which accounted for 15% of Chinese corn imports last year.
Yet, the rollout remains fraught with challenges. Public skepticism toward GM crops remains high, and several recent trial phases have delivered disappointing results. In some regions where first-generation GM corn was tested during 2022 and 2023, yields dropped by 10% to 20%, sources said. These outcomes were attributed to seed varieties poorly adapted to local growing conditions and insufficient backcross breeding—a key technique used to develop stable, high-performing hybrids.
“These setbacks highlight the difficulty of scaling up GM adoption without proven, locally-optimized varieties,” said Matthew Nicol, senior analyst at the Beijing-based consultancy China Policy. “Market adoption hinges on both farmer confidence in yields and the government’s ability to overcome deeply rooted public mistrust.”
Compounding the issue, illegal GM seeds have reportedly gained traction in northeastern provinces, revealing a strong underlying demand for higher-yielding crops, according to two industry sources. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently instructed local governments to intensify crackdowns on unauthorized GM seed sales and production.
Despite the stumbles, some observers believe the GM expansion is unlikely to reverse. “Once large-scale planting begins, early yield drops are possible as farmers adjust to new cultivation methods,” said Even Rogers Pay, an agriculture analyst at Trivium China. “But if performance continues to outpace traditional varieties, expansion will likely proceed. The proverbial genie is not going back into the bottle.”
While analysts estimate GM traits could improve yields by 6% to 13% under ideal conditions, credibility concerns may mount if trial results continue to underwhelm. “Beijing’s strategy could falter if agronomic performance doesn’t meet expectations,” Nicol warned.
China currently imports over 100 million metric tons of corn and soybeans annually, primarily for animal feed, with nearly all sourced from genetically modified crops grown in Brazil and the U.S. Meanwhile, domestic food production relies largely on non-GM varieties.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs did not respond to requests for comment.
