Multiple brokerages have outlined three key themes for their June strategies: the AI computing power revolution, capacity clearance opportunities, and consumption structure upgrading. CITIC Securities emphasizes the North American AI supply chain hardware and domestic computing power chain, China Merchants Securities recommends focusing on sectors experiencing capacity clearance inflection points such as semiconductors and new consumption trends like millet economy, while CSC suggests seizing the allocation window for high-dividend sectors such as finance and public utilities. Tianfeng Securities highlights the pace of self-reliance and control, Guosen Securities proposes laying out the two ends of the consumption “smile curve,” and GF Securities notes that consumer assets offer both odds and win-rate advantages. In terms of market outlook, Guosheng Securities is bullish on the mid-term bull market’s broad-based rally, Shenwan Hongyuan warns of short-term profit-taking pressure at high levels, and Changjiang Securities believes the Fed will maintain its pause due to U.S. employment resilience.
CITIC Securities: Recommend Focus on AI Chain from June to August, with Computing Power Supply Chain as Key
A-share focus remains on the AI chain, while Hong Kong stocks enter a bottom-up stock-picking phase. The popularization of long-text and memory functions is driving continuous growth in North American AI inference demand, making it the most likely industry trend to exceed expectations in the second half of the year.
The AI sector’s most certain opportunities lie in North American AI supply chain hardware companies with reasonably low valuations. As domestic AI applications catch up, the domestic chain may gain momentum in Q3 2025.
Specific allocations: AI computing power supply chain (AI servers, ASIC chips, optical modules, switches, etc.) are prioritized, while applications require continued tracking. Hong Kong stocks see improving liquidity, with core large-cap stocks at mid-to-upper valuation levels, offering bottom-up stock-picking opportunities despite limited short-term beta elasticity.
China Merchants Securities: Prioritize Capacity Clearance Inflection Points and Rise of New Consumption
In June, external tariff uncertainties may pressure domestic economic growth, requiring more policy support for stable growth. Sector allocation will focus on domestic development stages, emphasizing capacity clearance inflection points and new consumption trends.
Capacity clearance sectors: Semiconductors, coal, cement, building materials, home furnishings, textiles, hotels, aviation equipment, and specialized equipment, identified by high loss ratios, industry concentration, and low asset turnover/capital expenditure.
New consumption trends: Driven by Z-generation demand for personalized and self-indulgent consumption, sectors like millet economy, medical aesthetics, bulk snacks, and smart home appliances are highlighted.
Recommended sectors: Automobiles, nonferrous metals, defense, commerce & retail, beauty & healthcare, and pharmaceutical chemicals.
CSC: Seize High Dividend Target Allocation Opportunities in June
June, as a key dividend distribution period for A-shares, requires tracking fund flows and marginal changes in industry prosperity to capture high-dividend targets.
Sectors like finance, public utilities, and energy attract long-term funds (e.g., insurance, pensions) due to stable cash flows and high dividend yields, driving periodic valuation recovery.
Risk warning: Short-term profit-taking after dividends may intensify volatility, particularly in low-risk-appetite environments.
Tianfeng Securities: Grasp the Rhythm and Opportunities in Self-Reliance Sectors
Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultations remain ongoing, making self-reliance a long-term theme supported by national policy accumulation and import substitution.
Short-term focus: Low-valuation sectors (military, pharmaceuticals, electronics); mid-term focus: industry rhythms (military → IT infrastructure → pharmaceuticals → advanced manufacturing).
Huabao Securities: Prioritize Defensive Sectors like Banks in Short Term
With tariff negotiations likely to see repeated expectations and rising economic downward pressure, risk appetite may remain constrained. Large-cap weights have limited downside with central bank support, and defensive sectors like banks are expected to remain stable.
Micro-cap stocks face high volatility risks despite short-term strength. Patience is advised for better entry points in tech, pharmaceuticals, and new consumption sectors after adjustments.
Guosen Securities: Lay Out the Two Ends of the Consumption “Smile Curve”
Left end: Mass consumption represented by soft drinks; Right end: New consumption with secondary growth curves (e.g., personal care, pet products).
A-share market rotation: From dividend undervalues (2024 banks) to tech growth (2025 robots, large models) to domestic consumption (current mass + new consumption), marking the transition from the second to third phase.
GF Securities: Consumer Assets Offer Both Odds and Win-Rate Advantages
Drivers for equity assets:
Return to historical patterns: Consumer assets combine favorable odds and win rates.
Upside potential for fundamentals: Post-May trade relation improvements, market lows have been anchored, with long-term sentiment indicators still positive.
New thematic cues: Technological breakthroughs in key industries or mid-term policy dividends ahead of the late-July Politburo meeting.
Changjiang Securities: U.S. Employment Resilience Indicates Fed Can Maintain Pause
Despite tariff impacts, U.S. nonfarm payrolls suggest robust employment, easing recession fears and pointing to persistent inflation pressures from wage data.
The Fed has sufficient reason to wait, with markets fully pricing in no rate cuts in June. Mid-term, the scale of tariff implementation and its economic impact will determine subsequent policy paths.
Guosheng Securities: Market Expected to Continue Rising
The market has confirmed a daily upward trend, with limited downside space and low probability of revisiting previous lows. The daily rally is set to continue, and the mid-term bull market—marked by weekly upward trends in major indices and sector rotations—has just begun, featuring a broad-based rally.
Shenwan Hongyuan: Short-Term Market May Consolidate as Profitability Nears Highs
The short-term rebound is supported by macro “isolation,” but with overall profitability near highs, a short-term consolidation is likely.
Core new consumption targets (e.g., jewelry, IP toys, beauty products) maintain their valuation frameworks, but caution is advised against excessive diffusion of new consumption trends, which often signal short-term adjustments. Tech sectors may rebound in the short term but remain in a mid-term consolidation phase.
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