Gold prices (XAU/USD) bounced back above the $3,400 level during Thursday’s Asian session, recovering much of the ground lost in the previous session’s pullback from a two-week high. The rally was fueled by renewed dip-buying and persistent demand for safe-haven assets amid rising global tensions and economic uncertainty.
The precious metal found support as U.S. President Donald Trump downplayed the urgency of reaching a trade agreement with China, stating he was in “no real hurry” to sign a deal. His comments curbed earlier optimism sparked by the announcement of upcoming U.S.-China trade talks and rekindled fears of a prolonged trade conflict. Heightened geopolitical risks, including ongoing hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, military escalations in the Middle East, and tensions along the India-Pakistan border, further bolstered gold’s appeal.
The initial reaction to the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25%–4.50% on Wednesday proved short-lived. Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained a cautious stance, citing significant uncertainty around tariffs and the broader economic outlook. While this stance failed to fuel lasting momentum for the U.S. dollar, it contributed to continued investor demand for gold.
Despite these supportive factors, gains in the equity markets capped gold’s upside, as investor appetite for risk remained moderately intact ahead of Trump’s anticipated press conference later Thursday. The president teased a major trade deal with an unnamed “highly respected” country, which may influence broader risk sentiment.
Geopolitical Hotspots Continue to Fuel Gold Demand
Fresh geopolitical developments kept safe-haven demand alive:
In Russia, Ukrainian drone strikes led to the temporary closure of several Moscow airports, just hours before President Vladimir Putin’s self-declared three-day ceasefire. Ukraine accused Russia of violating the truce by launching airstrikes mere hours after it began.
In the Middle East, Israeli forces reportedly disabled Yemen’s main airport in Sanaa, controlled by the Houthis. The group responded with warnings of retaliation, keeping regional instability at the forefront of market concerns.
Meanwhile, President Trump reaffirmed his hardline stance on China, refusing to consider lowering the steep 145% tariffs in a bid to re-engage negotiations. The mixed signals on trade policy added another layer of unpredictability to global markets.
Looking Ahead
Investors will closely watch Trump’s press conference scheduled for 14:00 GMT for any updates that may sway risk sentiment or USD strength. Additionally, U.S. weekly initial jobless claims data, due later Thursday, could influence the dollar and, by extension, the gold market.
Technical Outlook
Technically, gold appears poised for further gains, having found firm support near the $3,260 level. The daily chart shows oscillators comfortably in positive territory, reinforcing a bullish bias. A decisive break above the immediate resistance at $3,434–$3,435 could pave the way for a retest of the all-time high near $3,500.
On the downside, support is seen at $3,465–$3,460, followed by the $3,328–$3,327 zone and the psychological $3,300 level. A sustained drop below this threshold could shift the near-term outlook to bearish, potentially dragging prices toward $3,260, then down to $3,222–$3,223, and ultimately the $3,200 area.
